Lancaster CA · Antelope Valley Real Estate
Scroll for the animated stats breakdown, then watch the full recap video below.
Short sales and bank-owned homes are their own slice of the active market. This recap does not freeze that share, because it moves with the MLS. See auction vs REO vs short sale and the Lancaster short-sale page for how those listings differ from a normal sale.
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Homes that hit the market this month. A leading indicator of the next 30 to 60 days of inventory.
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Homes that went under contract this month. A forward look at what closings will look like next month.
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Closed transactions across the Antelope Valley. The most reliable read on actual buyer demand.
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Average closed sale price across all AV homes that sold this month.
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Estimated principal & interest on the average AV sale price at this month's average 30-year fixed rate (6.54%).
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How long the average home took to go under contract. Lower is faster, which is typical for a hot market.
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How long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Under 5 = seller's market, over 6 = buyer's market.
The Antelope Valley market cooled slightly in July, with average and median sale prices both slipping from June while homes took about six days longer to sell. Compared to last July, inventory is tighter and sales are slightly stronger, but the median price has softened, painting a picture of a balanced market that's holding steady rather than trending decisively in either direction.
The same data tells a different story depending on which side of the transaction you're on. Here's the read for each.
For Sellers
Pricing discipline matters more than ever: sellers are still netting 99.5% of list, but only when the home is priced right out of the gate, since overpriced listings are sitting and watching newer competition come on. With roughly four months of supply and buyers stretching to absorb payments, expect a longer marketing window than earlier this year and be prepared to offer concessions like rate buydowns to close the deal.
For Buyers
Selection has improved from a year ago and the pace has eased just enough to shop thoughtfully rather than rush, so use the extra days on market as leverage to negotiate on price, closing costs, or a rate buydown. Keep an eye on the payment picture as well as the sticker price, because even a small dip in either the sale price or the rate can meaningfully change what you qualify for, and waiting for both to fall together is rarely a winning strategy.
Mike Watson walks through the July 2026 numbers and what they mean for buyers and sellers in Lancaster, Palmdale, and the rest of the Antelope Valley.
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Mike Watson
Keller Williams Realty · Antelope Valley, CA
Mike Watson has been serving the Antelope Valley real estate market since 2002 and has been a licensed Realtor since 2005. He specializes in Lancaster, Palmdale, and surrounding communities, providing clients with honest, data-driven guidance whether they're buying, selling, or just planning ahead.